{"id":195,"date":"2020-04-22T11:07:02","date_gmt":"2020-04-22T11:07:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ricovictor.com\/?p=195"},"modified":"2026-01-29T22:20:33","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T22:20:33","slug":"estadistica-bayesiana-y-trading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ricovictor.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/22\/estadistica-bayesiana-y-trading\/","title":{"rendered":"Estad\u00edstica Bayesiana y Trading"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\ud83c\udf19 Dentro de la <strong>estad\u00edstica<\/strong> la mayor\u00eda de an\u00e1lisis que solemos ver son usando la rama de la estad\u00edstica frecuentista o tambi\u00e9n llamada estad\u00edstica cl\u00e1sica, que se basa generalmente en el estudio solamente de las muestras obtenidas, suponiendo que esta puede representar una realidad mayor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udcd2 Pero existe tambi\u00e9n otro enfoque diferente, que es el <strong>bayesiano<\/strong>, donde se incorpora para el estudio estad\u00edstico tambi\u00e9n el conocimiento de expertos del tema en cuesti\u00f3n,combinando los datos que tenemos con las creencias subjetivas del campo analizado. Ah\u00ed es donde tenemos la principal diferencia con la estad\u00edstica cl\u00e1sica<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>De modo general podemos decir que para la estad\u00edstica cl\u00e1sica la <strong>probabilidad <\/strong>es un concepto objetivo que encontramos en la naturaleza, mientras que para la bayesiana es un concepto subjetivo definido por la persona que observa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udc68\ud83c\udffc\u200d\ud83d\udcbb El enfoque bayesiano es llamado as\u00ed porque se basa en el uso de probabilidades condicionales y por el famoso <strong>Teorema de Bayes<\/strong>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"320\" height=\"245\" src=\"https:\/\/ricovictor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/bayes2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-205\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ricovictor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/bayes2.png 320w, https:\/\/ricovictor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/bayes2-300x230.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 320px) 100vw, 320px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83c\udf20 Hay que decir que algunas t\u00e9cnicas muy conocidas como las Simulaciones de <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=9NSk0uFBplQ\">Montecarlo<\/a> tienen su origen en este m\u00e9todo, por lo que es algo que podemos incoporar y sacarle partido.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En este v\u00eddeo os mostrar\u00e9 un ejemplo creando desde 0 una estrateg\u00eda de <strong>trading<\/strong>  simple usando las probabilidades condicionales para cuantificar si el mercado puede subir o bajar. Debajo dejar\u00e9 tambi\u00e9n el c\u00f3digo en R.   \ud83e\udd17\ud83d\udc47<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"ast-oembed-container \" style=\"height: 100%;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Creando una Estrategia de Trading desde 0\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/2x704ZkLNvo?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>CODIGO EN R STUDIO DEL VIDEO<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>#####################\n\n#5. BAYES Y  PROBABILIDAD CONDICIONADA\n\n#5.1 Estrategia simple de comportamiento de activo al pERIDODO SIGUIeNTE\n#siguiente de un determinado evento\n\n#install.packages(\"quantmod\")\nlibrary(quantmod)\n#install.packages(\"timeSeries\")\nlibrary(timeSeries)\n\n#install.packages(\"forecast\")\nlibrary(forecast)\n#install.packages(\"TTR\")\nlibrary(TTR)\n\n\ngetFX(\"AUD\/USD\")\ngetFX(\"EUR\/USD\")\ngetFX(\"GBP\/USD\")\n\nplot(EURUSD,type=\"l\")\n\nrEUR&lt;- returns(EURUSD)*100\nrEUR\nplot(rEUR,type=\"l\")\n\n\n#sd(na.omit(rEUR))\n#abline(-0.2,0)\n#abline(0.2,0)\n\n\n#LA PROBABILIDAD DE QUE EL MERCADO SUBA O BAJE AL DIA SIGUIENTE DE QUE EL\n#EL EURUSD HAYA CAIDO POR ENCIMA DE 0.3\n\nactivo&lt;- EURUSD\n\n\n\n### fijas el dia que deseas o cantidad\n\ndayt&lt;- -0.4\n\n##\n\nactivo&lt;- na.omit(returns(EURUSD))\nactivo&lt;-activo*100\n\n#dayt&lt;-tail(activo)&#91;6]+ tail(activo)&#91;5]+tail(activo)&#91;4]\n#dayt&lt;- tail(activo)&#91;6]\n\ntf&lt;-data.frame(activo&lt; dayt)\nplot(activo,type=\"l\")\n\n#reb3&lt;-EURUSD>0.5\n#reb3\n#rebb&lt;-replace(reb3,reb3==TRUE,1)\n#rebb\n\n\n#1 buscamos el primer numero de la primera fila --i\n#fas&lt;-(FX&#91;FX$dat==i,])\n\ndat&lt;-seq(1:nrow(tf))\ntfcom&lt;-data.frame(dat,tf)\ncolnames(tfcom)&lt;-c(\"dat\",\"activo\")\n\n##cogemos las que cumplen la condicion\n\ntf2&lt;- tfcom&#91;tfcom$activo==TRUE,]\ntf2\n\n\nactivo&lt;- data.frame(dat,activo)\ncolnames(activo)&lt;- c(\"dat\",\"activo\")\nactivo2&lt;- activo&#91;activo$activo&lt; ( dayt),]\nactivo2  # tabla de retornos que cumple la condicion\n\nplot(activo2,type=\"l\")\n\nDAT&lt;- activo2$dat + 1  # AL DIA SIGUIENTE\nDAT\nactivo3&lt;- na.omit(activo&#91;activo2$dat + 1,])\nactivo3\n\nquantile(activo3$activo,c(0.05,0.95))\nhist(activo3$activo)\n\n\n# muestra eurusd\n\nmuestra2 = activo3$activo\nmuestra2\nmean(muestra2)\nsum(muestra2)\n\n#reb3&lt;-muestra2>0.0\n#reb3\n#muestra&lt;-replace(reb3,reb3==TRUE,1)\n#muestra\n\norden&lt;-sort(activo3$activo)\norden\n\norden>0\n\nurdin1&lt;- data.frame(orden>0)\nurdin&lt;- data.frame(urdin1)\nURDIN&lt;-urdin&#91;urdin$orden...0==FALSE,]\n\nlength(URDIN)\n\n\ndim&lt;-length(activo3$activo)\ndim\n\nzz&lt;- length(URDIN)\n\nprobNeg2= zz\/dim\nprobNeg2\n\n#0.86 PROBABILIDAD UNA VEZ EL DIA ANTERIOR CAIDO 0.3 VUELVA CAER\n\nmediaCaida&lt;- mean(orden&#91;1:zz])\nmediaCaida\n\nprobPos2&lt;-1-probNeg2\nprobPos2\n\nmediaSubida&lt;- mean(orden&#91;(zz+1):length(orden)])\nmediaSubida\n\n\nplot(activo,type=\"l\")\nquantile(activo$activo,c(0.05,0.95))\n\n\n\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Enlace P\u00e1gina de la foto<\/strong> :  <a href=\"https:\/\/lemn26.wordpress.com\/2013\/11\/15\/poison\/\">https:\/\/lemn26.wordpress.com\/2013\/11\/15\/poison\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud83c\udf19 Dentro de la estad\u00edstica la mayor\u00eda de an\u00e1lisis que solemos ver son usando la rama de la estad\u00edstica frecuentista o tambi\u00e9n llamada estad\u00edstica cl\u00e1sica, que se basa generalmente en el estudio solamente de las muestras obtenidas, suponiendo que esta puede representar una realidad mayor. \ud83d\udcd2 Pero existe tambi\u00e9n otro enfoque diferente, que es el &hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"> <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/ricovictor.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/22\/estadistica-bayesiana-y-trading\/\"> <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Estad\u00edstica Bayesiana y Trading<\/span> Leer m\u00e1s &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":197,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[65,43],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Estad\u00edstica Bayesiana y Trading - V\u00edctor A. 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