{"id":2809,"date":"2021-08-13T23:25:36","date_gmt":"2021-08-13T23:25:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ricovictor.com\/?p=2809"},"modified":"2026-01-29T21:46:12","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T21:46:12","slug":"que-son-los-modelos-autorregresivos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ricovictor.com\/index.php\/2021\/08\/13\/que-son-los-modelos-autorregresivos\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 son los Modelos Autorregresivos?"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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En estad\u00edstica, un modelo autorregresivo (AR)<\/strong> es una representaci\u00f3n de un proceso aleatorio(estoc\u00e1stico)<\/strong>, en el que la variable de inter\u00e9s depende de sus observaciones pasadas. Espec\u00edficamente, la variable de inter\u00e9s o de salida, depende linealmente de sus valores anteriores<\/strong>. Por esto decimos que existe dependencia lineal entre las distintas observaciones de la variable. Si no sabes lo que es un proceso aleatorio, hemos de decir que un ejemplo de estos son por ejemplo las series de tiempo como las serie de precios en bolsa o la evoluci\u00f3n de los habitantes en un regi\u00f3n, etc etc<\/em><\/p>

En el siguiente video explico m\u00e1s a detalle estos modelos, haciendo una introducci\u00f3n te\u00f3rica, analizando sus ecuaciones y haciendo un ejemplo final en R studio. El c\u00f3digo usado lo tienes justo debajo del video.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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C\u00d3DIGO EN R DEL VIDEOS<\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

#video Proceso Autoregresivo (AR)<\/p>

#install.packages(\u00abquantmod\u00bb)
library(quantmod)
#install.packages(\u00abtseries\u00bb)
library(tseries)
#install.packages(\u00abforecast\u00bb)
library(forecast)
#install.packages(\u00abTSA\u00bb)
library(TSA)
#install.packages(\u00abQuandl\u00bb)
library(Quandl)<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

#getSymbols(\u00abCPIAUCNS\u00bb,src=\u00bbFRED\u00bb)<\/p>

getSymbols(\u00abEXUSEU\u00bb,src=\u00bbFRED\u00bb)<\/p>

plot(EXUSEU,type=\u00bbl\u00bb)<\/p>

#Modelo AR(1)<\/p>

MAR_100= Arima(EXUSEU,order=c(1,0,0))
MAR_100<\/p>

residuos <- MAR_100$residuals<\/p>

plot(residuos,type=\u00bbl\u00bb)<\/p>

summary(MAR_100)<\/p>

#adf.test(EXUSEU)<\/p>

ar1 <- arima(EXUSEU,order=c(2,0,0))
ar1<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En estad\u00edstica, un modelo autorregresivo (AR) es una representaci\u00f3n de un proceso aleatorio(estoc\u00e1stico), en el que la variable de inter\u00e9s depende de sus observaciones pasadas. Espec\u00edficamente, la variable de inter\u00e9s o de salida, depende linealmente de sus valores anteriores. Por esto decimos que existe dependencia lineal entre las distintas observaciones de la variable. Si no …<\/p>\n

\u00bfQu\u00e9 son los Modelos Autorregresivos?<\/span> Leer m\u00e1s »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2812,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfQu\u00e9 son los Modelos Autorregresivos? - V\u00edctor A. 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