{"id":287,"date":"2020-04-27T10:51:25","date_gmt":"2020-04-27T10:51:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ricovictor.com\/?p=287"},"modified":"2026-01-29T22:20:15","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T22:20:15","slug":"cointegracion-en-acciones","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ricovictor.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/27\/cointegracion-en-acciones\/","title":{"rendered":"Cointegraci\u00f3n en Acciones"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\ud83d\udcf2 La<strong> cointegraci\u00f3n<\/strong> es un fen\u00f3meno estad\u00edstico que se da cuando de dos series que no son <a href=\"https:\/\/ricovictor.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/02\/estacionariedad-definicion-y-test-para-detectarla-en-r\/\">estacionarias<\/a> podemos obtener una combinaci\u00f3n lineal entre ellas que s\u00ed lo sea.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2b06\ufe0f Este hecho en s\u00ed puede tener una aplicaci\u00f3n pr\u00e1ctica en muchos \u00e1mbitos, pero centr\u00e1ndonos en los mercados, nos puede servir para crear una <strong>estrategia de arbitraje<\/strong> para invertir en acciones,forex, materias primas etc. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udcccLa idea es usar esa combinaci\u00f3n lineal que representa una estabilidad a largo plazo entre los activos para aprovechar los desequilibrios puntuales que existan y  entrar al mercado con mayor probabilidad de \u00e9xito. En el gr\u00e1fico de abajo podemos ver la relaci\u00f3n existente entre dos acciones espa\u00f1olas. Bankinter y Santander. Ese spread de cointegraci\u00f3n creado podemos usarlo para entrar al mercado usando el arbitraje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"687\" height=\"384\" src=\"https:\/\/ricovictor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/cointegracion.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-288\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ricovictor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/cointegracion.png 687w, https:\/\/ricovictor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/cointegracion-300x168.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 687px) 100vw, 687px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83e\udd17 En este v\u00eddeo hago un ejemplo en R ampliando este concepto y usando el mercado de acciones espa\u00f1olas como base.  \ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffb\ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffb<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube aligncenter wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"ast-oembed-container \" style=\"height: 100%;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Cointegraci\u00f3n en Acciones. Creando una estrategia de cointegraci\u00f3n.\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/f61XxKyfKQQ?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>CODIGO EN R DEL V\u00cdDEO<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>\n\n## CODIGO PARA COINTEGRACION PARA 2 activos ####\n\n\n## Recordar Cointegracion ser\u00e1 entre dos series NO ESTACIONARIAS\n\n## Obtendremos una Combinaci\u00f3n Lineal que s\u00ed sea Estacionaria\n\n## Eso nos permitir\u00e1 tener mayor probablidad de \u00e9xito \n\n### crear una estrategia de arbitraje\n\n#######################################\n\n####  #######\n\n#install.packages(\"quantmod\")\nlibrary(quantmod)\n#install.packages(\"tseries\")\nlibrary(tseries)\n#install.packages(\"fImport\")\nlibrary(fImport)\n\n\n\n# DESCARGA DE DATOS\n# UTILIZAMOS 2 acciones\n\n\ngetSymbols(\"REP.MC\",quote=\"Close\",from =\"2018-01-01\",periodicity = \"daily\")\nREP= REP.MC&#91;,4]\ngetSymbols(\"BBVA.MC\",quote=\"Close\",from =\"2018-01-01\",periodicity = \"daily\")\nBBVA= BBVA.MC&#91;,4]\ngetSymbols(\"BKT.MC\",quote=\"Close\",from =\"2018-01-01\",periodicity = \"daily\")\nbkt= BKT.MC&#91;,4]\ngetSymbols(\"SAN.MC\",quote=\"Close\",from =\"2018-01-01\",periodicity = \"daily\")\nSAN= SAN.MC&#91;,4]\n\n\n\n\n\n# CODIGO DE MULTICOINTEGRACION\n\n# 1 Hacemos los logaritmos de las series\n\ny = log(bkt)\nx = log(SAN)\n\nplot(y,type=\"l\")\nplot(x,type=\"l\")\n\nlibrary(tseries)\n\n\n## 2. Creaci\u00f3n del modelo \n\nmod_cointegracion=lm(y~x)         # regresi\u00f3n lineal\n\n# sacamos betas del modelo de regresi\u00f3n\n\nbeta=coef(mod_cointegracion) \n\nbeta\n\n#res&lt;-residuals(mod_cointegracion)\n\n#res1&lt;-data.frame(res)\n#adf.test(res1$res)\n\n#modelo y la betas\n\n## Creamos el Spread para hacer arbitraje\n\npendient =x*beta&#91;2]+beta&#91;1]   #se podr\u00eda poner m\u00e1s solo a\u00f1adiendo betas\n\nquant_spread= pendient - y    ### Es el spread que vamos a operar\n\nplot(quant_spread,type=\"l\",main=\"BANKINTER-SANTANDER\")\n\n\n# 4. COMPORBACION DE COINTEGRACI\u00d3N CON EL TEST DE DICKEY FULLER\n\ndickey=adf.test(quant_spread)   \ndickey            ### Pronto lo podr\u00e9is tener en indicador\n\n\n\nplot(quant_spread,type=\"l\")\nabline(mean(na.omit(quant_spread)),0,col=\"orange\")\nabline(mean(na.omit(quant_spread))+sd(na.omit(quant_spread)),0,col=\"blue\")\nabline(mean(na.omit(quant_spread))-sd(na.omit(quant_spread)),0,col=\"blue\")\n\nabline(mean(na.omit(quant_spread))+1.5*sd(na.omit(quant_spread)),0,col=\"violet\")\nabline(mean(na.omit(quant_spread))-1.5*sd(na.omit(quant_spread)),0,col=\"violet\")\n\n\n\n\n## comprar de x(santander) y vender y(bankiter)\n\n\n\n## beta\n\ncantidad&lt;- beta&#91;2]\ncantidad\n\n\n### Probar con Indices por ejemplo sp500 y dow \n### Incluso probar con EURUSD\/Indices o materias primas(brent,crudo)\n## maiz,cerdo--- maiz- trigo- soja\n\n\n<\/code><\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud83d\udcf2 La cointegraci\u00f3n es un fen\u00f3meno estad\u00edstico que se da cuando de dos series que no son estacionarias podemos obtener una combinaci\u00f3n lineal entre ellas que s\u00ed lo sea. \u2b06\ufe0f Este hecho en s\u00ed puede tener una aplicaci\u00f3n pr\u00e1ctica en muchos \u00e1mbitos, pero centr\u00e1ndonos en los mercados, nos puede servir para crear una estrategia de &hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"> <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/ricovictor.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/27\/cointegracion-en-acciones\/\"> <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Cointegraci\u00f3n en Acciones<\/span> Leer m\u00e1s &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":292,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[63,64],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Cointegraci\u00f3n en Acciones - V\u00edctor A. 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